SUPPLEMENTARY CHARTS AND TABLES
INTRODUCTION
The Pre-Budget Report, published by HM Treasury on 8 November 2000, includes a discussion of economic developments and prospects. This document provides additional information to that contained in the Pre-Budget Report (Annex A), in the form of detailed charts and tables.
The charts and tables are consistent with national accounts to the second quarter of 2000 released by the Office for National Statistics on the 27 September, and the preliminary GDP estimate for the third quarter, released on 20 October.
Forecast ranges
As in previous Budget and Pre-Budget Reports, the economic forecast is presented in terms of forecast ranges, based on alternative assumptions about the supply-side performance of the UK economy.
The mid-points of the forecast ranges represent the Government’s neutral case view of economic prospects, based on an assumption of 2½ per cent a year for the trend rate of output growth from the start of 2001. This neutral assumption for trend growth is set out in Table A2 of the November 2000 Pre-Budget Report, and is discussed in the accompanying text. It assumes only a very modest increase in the employment rate, and does not bank on any improvement in underlying productivity performance compared to the 1990s.
The figures at the low end of the range are consistent with a deliberately cautious assumption of 2¼ per cent a year trend growth. This does not assume any increase in the employment rate. As before, projections for the public finances (set out in Annex B of the Pre-Budget Report) are based on the low end of the ranges. The upper end of the forecast ranges is symmetrical, illustrating the clear potential for stronger growth based in part on Government policies to raise productivity growth and to increase the labour supply.
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